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Establishing or spoiling stability in Iraq

   
OpinionsBy Nuray Basaran

“A new process is starting in Iraq with the new administration established with the support of UN Special Representative to Iraq Lakhdar Brahimi and Washington.

The main aim of this process is general elections planned for next January. The new Governing Council which will take over the administration of the country on June 30 will be responsible for carrying out three aims towards fulfilling this goal. The first is representing the Iraq state on the international stage, holding meetings and dealing with agreements. The second is reestablishing public order and meeting the urgent needs of the nation, and the third is ensuring Iraq’s security and stability. An effective political power is really needed but no such power, that is, an effective domestic army and police force, yet exists. It seems the coalition powers will continue to meet this need, supported by international forces under the United Nations Security Council and NATO umbrella.


Shiite Arabs have the upper hand now, and Iran is waiting for its moment to step into the game. Circles behind Sunni Arabs are resisting Arab countries, and former Baath groups and making efforts to secure certain areas. It also seems such forces as al-Qaeda will stay in Iraq for longer. The Kurds seem to be stuck in expectations created by the atmosphere of victory and the fear of attacks by Shiite Arabs. Meanwhile, Turkmen are mulling over their role. More time is needed for democracy and welfare in Iraq because the atmosphere described above shows the tension between establishing a balance and upsetting one. Although the US is still expecting a democracy there, the majority of the world expects the US to speak differently until the establishment of a proper Iraq state. For this reason, the three obstacles to setting up democracy in Iraq should be addressed; firstly, an international stabilization force, even a symbolic one, should come to Iraq, secondly, issues of central administration and the regime should be solved, and thirdly, fair distribution should be done.”